NBA TAKE 5: Agents of Destiny

1. LEBRON JAMES
The Akron Don

So it was believed for some time that nothing would truly get underway in this free agency period until LeBron James made up his mind. Wrong. Teams have moved ahead with the suitors for LBJ’s services narrowed to the usual suspects - Cleveland, Chicago, New Jersey and Miami. The running is probably in that order today, though Miami presents a real nightmare for Cleveland who would benefit little from a sign-and-trade with the Heat. Chicago does have pieces to move and has provided a little extra oomph in their pitch, even adding a soft talk from President Barack Obama. Chicagoan Obama is a basketball fan and can only help James in his bid to take over the world, which is exactly what he’s done in the NBA… optically anyway.

Meanwhile LeBron has stayed close to his headquarters in Akron, Ohio. The Cavs still have the inside edge and when people talk about where LeBron is going it should be held in the context of “if” he leaves Cleveland. After all, this time and through all the rumors and speculation and web of mixed messages the real question still remains as unclear as it’s been for two years. Will he? James, in keeping with his summer circus act, has planned a one-hour ESPN special on Thursday to announce his decision. Would he dump his beloved city on live TV?

It is an even bet these days and he has stated it won’t take him too long to confirm his intentions after July 8 when free agents officially sign their pacts. Cap-spending NBA teams are looking to pick up two big names and now that Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are signed players like Richard Jefferson, Josh Howard, and Mike Miller – guys taking pay cuts from their last deals - will be circling. The Heat has the jump on any LeBron destination with their new duo in tact, though word is they will still wait to see if James joins them in Florida. Doubtful. The New York Knicks with their addition of Amar’e Stoudemire and money to burn are intriguing again, and if James isn’t in a Miami/New York state of mind the New Jersey Nets and his good friend Jay-Z are also a viable option.

Waiting on James has its price though, with many of the names already finding homes (Steve Blake was a great Lakers pick up – would have helped any team). Still, there will be enough guys that can be persuaded to do the Marquis Daniels and take less to sign on with a favorite but Cleveland, for all its past efforts, haven’t been able to get enough of those guys before. What will change if James stays? With a new GM and a new head coach and a newly constructed roster? Unlikely, meaning James is likely New York, New Jersey or Miami bound.

It is important to remember however, that most of the big deals that have been signed so far this summer - John Salmons, Rudy Gay, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson and Kevin Durant to name a few- have all been from players resigning or extending with their old teams. There hasn’t been the mass exodus many expected, particularly with a looming league lockout, and guys looking for quick security going forward. Who would have thought that at this point, it would be LeBron James, the biggest name in free agency, still stuck between a lone-star rebuild in Cleveland and a new beginning of his choosing… anywhere.

2. MIAMI HEAT
Team Wade

So the NBA’s version of the mad hatter, Heat GM Pat Riley is set to made his decadent run at a championship. Lakers in the 80’s, New York in the 90’s, Miami in the 00’s and now Miami again in the 10’s. Kinda makes you wish he were doing this in Texas so he could have all the time zones covered, but we digress. Wouldn’t want to do that with Riley playing with a ton of cap space and likely to fly down from his GM’s office and coach the party. That selling point means current head coach Eric Spoelstra is out, a must if Riley wanted a shot at landing LeBron James, Chris Bosh or both.

For now Bosh has been secured with Riley even convincing the 6-10 power forward to take a five-year deal and sign with the Heat outright as opposed to working in a sixth year through a sign-and-trade deal with the Toronto Raptors. The point is that with both Dwyane Wade and Bosh on board as max players, the Heat will need all the money they can to put together a quality supporting staff. Leaving the Toronto Raptors with nothing in return won’t make Bosh any new friends in the T-dot but what’s the trade off?

Clearly Bosh was unimpressed by Raptors management who are a far cry from the team upstairs in Miami. After Phil Jackson Riley might be the next best thing going along with Gregg Popovich in San Antonio. That is huge for a player that has worked for three different regimes and three head coaches during his seven seasons in T.O. Stability.

Riley’s grand plan most certainly have to include another team or two, quite possibly the Cleveland Cavaliers should James bolt but the Raptors weren’t overly receptive to any Miami deal. In the end it didn’t matter and if the Heat do in fact hold on to Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers a solid base exists to work from.

In the end, the key to this whole process has been Wade, who has been in the air of Bosh and to a lesser extent James since his Heat took a slide during his injury plagued season of two years ago. Wade has what the others have never; a tried and tested GM/coach in the wings in Riley and a championship ring to prove that the game plan works. His recruitment of Bosh has been steady and his influence over other NBA players should not be ignored. If you are looking for the most powerful player in this special free agent season, he’s the one that had his homework done a long time ago, and it showed.

3. NEW JERSEY NETS
The Legend and the Billionaire

The Nets aren’t just out to play the “only way is up” card after registering just 12 wins last season. Instead they’ve been busy throwing, er… trading out the supporting cast they had around building blocks Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. Gone are Yi Jianlian and the bad wrap bear Chris Douglas-Roberts. Expect others to follow as the Nets position themselves to go after everybody from A-list on down, and after LeBron James and the Miami Heat wield their power (separately I suspect), and the Chicago Bulls get at least a sniff of star power, the Nets will be the most attractive destination on the market.

Armed with a new billionaire owner in Mikhail Prokhorov and an increased company profile for rap mogul Jay-Z, the Nets also have their impending move to Brooklyn and its new mega development that figures to reinvigorate the Borough as selling points. Playing for New York without the Knicks baggage and a state of the art future not far away?

Who would say no to that?

If it’s not James it will be Carmelo Anthony next summer (yes, I’m convinced he’s New York bound). Prokhorov has been open about how he plans to spend – lavishly. With that kind of push from all sides of the business die a franchise player would be well served as a Brooklyn Net, and now the organization has an owner, partner and a team of planners and engineers that know it, believe it and spit it.

By all accounts the Nets have been super-impressive in their “come-to-Jesus” recruiting but it did not prevent Prokhorov from stating publicly that he believes that Wade and Bosh will play together in Miami this upcoming season. Dead on. With the big names resigning with old squads and the Wade/Bosh deal all but official it seems like the Nets are losing ground though. Chicago recently agreed to terms with Carlos Boozer as a five-year, $75M consolation prize. Boozer’s top choice was the Heat but New Jersey was thought to be a close second. Ouch! With all the good coming the Nets way in two years it still leaves two seasons of playing in Jersey. It may not be the Meadowlands but it will still be sparse crowds and low lights. As good as the future sounds, most players seem intent on seeing to believe.

4. CHRIS BOSH
Where the Wind Blows

It’s all but inked – Chris Bosh will join Dwyane Wade in Miami this coming season, most likely on a five-year $90M deal that essentially leaves his former team out to dry. It isn’t that losing Bosh outright is the worst thing in the world for the Raptors but it does leave them without a trace of All-Star talent, devastating for a club that has been ripping apart their roster for the last two seasons trying to return to the playoffs. Ironically, that was the biggest reason Bosh bolted. A bunch of players under bad contracts that seemed more suffocating that freeing to Bosh’s All-Star game was a killer.

In Miami the opposite is true, with no bad contracts in place. Actually, outside of Bosh and Wade’s new maximum deals only Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley’s rookie scale deals exist, meaning the ground-up building is just beginning. Alas, with the proven Pat Riley at the helm and a fascinating owner in place the process should give Bosh a lot more fun than he was having in Toronto. In the end Bosh essentially refused to deal with Raptors brass and GM Bryan Colangelo who can count losing Bosh for nothing as one of the greatest failures of his career if he is indeed left empty-handed.

The move was a good one for Bosh especially since, up until now, he has compared himself with the biggest names of his 2003 draft class. Problem there was that he had nothing on them. Wade, James and Anthony are all playoff tested, playoff winners and have played for cap-busting teams while Bosh did little with little. Now he has a chance to truly join the elite, where winning is the only ticket in.

5. RIPPLE EFFECT
American Muscle

No matter how the much-discussed free agent “summit” went down – through dinner, text, tweets or conference calls – it wasn’t likely to shed any new light for anybody. As complicated as the players and owners have tried to make this crazy free agent era the beef is really a simple cook.

Be the hunter or the hunted. The question that inspired this “summit” talk is more interesting. What if Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen had gotten together when they were 25 years old? What if they had had the foresight to put away their egos and joined forces for ten years instead of five? What kind of legacy would they have left then, and how much more money could they have generated in the long term because of it?

Look at the combination of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Ron Artest in Los Angeles. A team built to be champions for the next five years. Will a Cleveland Cavaliers team featuring LeBron James and a band of role players come close to that? Will Boston’s aging big three have a chance at dominance in the same way?

This is why the league’s superstars initially colluded, to avoid the strings of disappointment that haven’t even happened yet. When Garnett spoke loosely about the LeBron James free agency issue, speaking from experience when he stated that loyalty could be detrimental, he was talking to all the leagues stars and they noticed.

Hey, nobody made this much of a cry when Garnett, Pierce and Allen decided to team up because they had all “served” their sentences with a decade worth of flirtatious teams that could never get over the hump. Dues? Does living out your franchise player dreams for too long qualify as dues?

Call it evolution of the soul. The morphing of the modern athlete where just when ego and pride had seemed to hit an all-time high there was a scale back. A reality check that explained exactly why the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls and San Antonio Spurs have been so successful over the past 20 years. Abundant star-power. It’s the only way. and please, don’t cite me the Detroit Pistons of 2004 and the Houston Rockets of 1995. Sunshine and dog’s asses people…