NBA RUMORS: Draft Madness

With the NBA Draft upon fresh news can’t come fast enough. Before you know it the details have changed and what you thought was happening really isn’t, and what you thought never could sometimes does. In between the game plays out and if you listen to general managers across the league they will tell you that this Draft Class season figures to be one of the more unpredictable in years and the fun has already begun.

 

 

WIZARDS/‘WOLVES DEAL RAISES STAKES FOR BOTH

Looks like the Washington Wizards are more interested in winning now than developing another young star for the future. The Minnesota Timberwolves are willing to press the reset button by giving up on some of their more established talent to start from ground zero under new GM David Kahn. Two teams with two opposite directions did business Tuesday night and it may have brought more questions than answers for both sides.

 

The future is now in Wash-city and ever-hopeful that guard Gilbert Arenas can return to form, the Wiz are expected to officially announce a deal that would send out big men Oleksly Pecherov, Etan Thomas and Darius Songalia to the rebuilding Timberwolves in exchange for guards Randy Foye and Mike Miller.

 

Wow.

 

And for all of you who are questioning the sanity of the Wolves for making such a deal… put a cork in it. Why? Because the Wizards have also included the fifth overall pick in this week’s NBA Draft, meaning the Wolves now own four first rounds selections – 5, 6, 18 and 28. Strong word is that they will try to package one or more of those picks with a player in order to move up in the draft, possibly to Memphis’ second position where they covet big man Hasheem Thabeet out of UConn. If not, they still plan to be extremely active this week. Memphis guard Tyreke Evans gets lots of love in Minny’s front office and is second on their wish list with Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn and Arizona’s James Harden rounding out their top four. Thabeet is viewed as a can’t-lose shot-blocking and defensive prospect but clearly the Wolves are in need of some point guard power. In that case Evans and Flynn would seem the most likely of lottery picks if the Wolves retain their fifth or sixth overall selection.

 

Look for Minnesota to be the most active team in the NBA this week.

 

For Washington the deal signals a serious go at the Eastern Conference crown though they are left with little depth in the frontcourt, a dangerous outlook given the beef residing in Orlando, Cleveland, Boston and Chicago. And even with the addition of three-point gunner Miller and the promising Foye much of Washington’s success still relies on the contributions of Arenas, who has played little meaningful basketball in two years. Foye and Miller could be viewed as possible insurance should Arenas not dominate as he did before a series of knee surgeries forced him to the sidelines. Both are on ending contracts meaning the upcoming Wizard’s season could be the beginning or the end of many of things in Washington if it doesn’t work out. As many as eight Wizards could be in the last year of their contracts (four have team options for the 2010-11 season, Foye is due a qualifying offer).

 

For Washington it is looking like do-or-die. For Minnesota it’s about building through the draft and with four first-rounders, there will be no excuses if they can’t uncover a star talent star to grow beside center Al Jefferson and power forward Kevin Love.

 

 

JEFFERSON SPURRED

A lot of heads did a double-take when the San Antonio managed to snag Richard Jefferson from the cash-strapped Milwaukee Bucks this week but if you have been following the Spurs over the last five seasons this is exactly the type of move they have made time and time again. It is the reason the Spurs seem to win the title almost every other year and Jefferson is a San Antonio kind of guy (read: no off-court issues).

 

So the Spurs get Jefferson and only had to give up Kurt Thomas and Bruce Bowen to make it work. The Spurs also sent Fabricio Oberto to the Detroit Pistons for Amir Johnson, who was then sent to the Bucks to complete a busy day for both teams.

 

The big winner here is the Spurs who have been racked by injuries over the past calendar year. In Jefferson they get a legitimate 20-point scorer who hasn’t missed a game in two seasons. That durability is much needed if the Spurs are going to compete with four-headed monster teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic in their chase for another championship ring. Jefferson also has strong postseason experience having reached back-to-back Finals with the New Jersey Nets earlier this decade.

 

R.C. Buford - the general manager and mastermind behind the model franchise – has quietly struck again. Moving out three players for one simplifies a roster that still has cost-effective youth like George Hill, Matt Bonner and Roger Mason Jr. to support what is now one of the most dominant looking six-man rotations in the NBA.

 

For the Bucks it means saving money, with Bowen and Thomas in the final years of their respective contracts. The deal figures to save them about $5M between now and next season with another $15M coming off their books in 2010-11. With re-signing frontcourt scorer Charlie Villanueva and guard Ramon Sessions impending priorities, Bucks GM John Hammond couldn’t resists the move to send out Jefferson and start planning for a more competitive future.

 

 

LUCKY #9 FOR COLANGELO?

Toronto Raptors general manager and president Bryan Colangelo isn’t shy about telling you about all the luck he has had with the ninth overall pick while serving as the GM in Phoenix. Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion are the trophies most often on display and no doubt B.C. is looking to add another to the mantle this year.

 

Ironically, Colangelo is in a bit of a bind in trying to resign Marion whom he acquired in a February deal last season. Without him on board the small forward spot is Toronto’s most pressing need. With him the concerns are at the back up point guard position and frontcourt depth. Chances are looking good that the Raptors will reacquire guard/forward Carlos Delfino his brief stint in Russia last season so some ball-handling and backcourt defensive concerns are addressed. Still, outside of Blake Griffin and Hasheem Thabeet there doesn’t seem to be enough lottery-worthy big men in the upcoming NBA Draft.

 

This is a draft deep in point guards and wings, the latter providing a wealth of options for Colangelo’s biggest hole after trading away Jason Kapono and the jury still out on the returns of Joey Graham and Pops Mensah-Bonsu.

 

Most believe that should the Raptors hold onto the ninth overall pick they will select the super-athletic Demar DeRozan of USC but the view from this corner sees Louisville’s Earl Clark as the more promising of the two. The knock on DeRozan is his tendency to follow the tempo and flow - not set it, though he was able to put those concerns to bed somewhat after going on a tear to end his college career. Clark’s knock is similar except he did little to dispel his reputation for riding his natural abilities too much rather than working to elevate his game against weaker competition in college. That’s usually a headache for an NBA coach to work out. Alas, if the time is made to do so Clark could be the best player outside of Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio in the draft.

 

Bank on one of them being a Raptor after they select on Thursday night. DeRozan is the more obvious pick, Clark the more obvious risk. However,  if size, versatility and strong defensive potential are still high on the team’s checklist then Clark, at 6-10 a full three inches taller than DeRozan, could be the surprise choice and the latest score for Colangelo on the #9 train. He could also be the best option to immediately replace Marion should the veteran not return to the T-dot.

Kapono Swapped for Evans

The best way to describe the trading of Jason Kapono from the Toronto Raptors to the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Reggie Evans is simple… broken promises. And that isn’t just a one-way street headed out of Toronto and down towards the Iiladelph. Best believe that the unfulfilled potential goes both ways and as much as Kapono in Toronto was a bust of a move, Evans hasn’t exactly been a dependable night-in, night-out spark for Philly.

 

In what amounts to a swap of offense for defense the Raptors, for the third straight season under general manager Bryan Colangelo, will try to add toughness (finally with some hint of the realization that it isn’t going to come from within). Evans is most often described as a tough-nosed player but with a 14 minutes per game average it remains to be seen how much of it will actually become a potent contagion (something smells like most of his “Toughness 101″ classes will be taught in practice, with some mid-season backdoor credit). His 4.6 rebounds and 3.3 points per game won’t make him a coveted must-have in your fantasy league either, but he also doesn’t need be involved scoring-wise to feel better about rebounding and playing defense.

 

The statistic most often thrown around with Evans is his per minute rebound rate, which has been in the top ten of the league in six of his seven years in. This past season he placed seventh in rebounds per 48 minutes. It’s a number that would matter a lot more if he ever found himself on the court for extended minutes. While it speaks to some efficiency, the reality is that if the 6-8 forward logs big minutes something has gone wrong. Evans can be downright horrific on offense but has streaks of being a lockdown defender and zeroed in rebounder, both things consistently missing from Toronto’s make-up last season.

 

The same “tease” quickly became true of Kapono during his two-year stay in Toronto. While his three-point prowess is undeniable he never found a happy place under former Raptors head coach Sam Mitchell, and was up and down under his Mitchell’s mid-season replacement Jay Triano. It was thought that Triano’s permanent hiring last month would mean a second lease on life in Toronto for Kapono but Colangelo could not resist the urge to correct another one of his unproductive signings.

 

Reversing bad deals has been like a second job for Raptors management this past year, and Kapono’s contributions lacked impact. He was never able to effectively expand his role beyond that of a specialist, though the Raptors gave him a four-year, $24M contract to try. Front court marauders Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, and Jermaine O’Neal were never enough of a combined threat to give Kapono the room he was used to in Miami, where he played a very limited role behind the strong, attention-grabbing presences of Shaquille O’Neal and Dwayne Wade.

 

Kapono won’t get that in Philadelphia either – not with Samuel Dalembert manning the middle - but the 76ers haven’t had a star shooter since trading away Kyle Korver two seasons ago. They’ve also developed talent like Thaddeus Young and Marreese Speights and are hopeful that Elton Brand returns to All-Star form next season after a campaign racked with injury. Evans became expendable under these additions and Kapono on paper represents a major upgrade in the shooting department.

 

The Sixers pay extra in the deal, about $2.5M over the next two seasons - the duration of both player contracts. Evans becomes one of just four Raptors under contract past 2010 on a team that currently does not have a true maximum deal on the payroll. Kapono joins a club committed long-term to Brand and franchise player Andre Iguadala.

 

Go blow-for-blow and it’s unclear who wins out on this deal. At a glance it would seem like a no-brainer fleece for Philadelphia, who had an overabundance of bigs and no feared long-distance shooters. Simple math, right? Alas, there is nobody on the roster who commands a double-team and the honesty by which the opposition is allowed to defend Philly’s shooters is a contributing factor. The Sixers were dead last in three-point shooting last season with a dismal 31.8 percent. The 76ers only had to give up the least valuable forward on the team while the Raptors had to give up one of the best three-point shooters in the league. 

 

While the Raptors finished the season ranked 21^st in rebounding and opponents field goal percentage they spent most of the year ranked lower in both categories. Depending on how the Raptors choose to select in this month’s NBA draft, and whether or not they can re-sign the much-needed Shawn Marion, Evans could have a steady role or play a bit part. The team is selling this as an addition of toughness and after Colangelo sold Bosh, Bargnani and Kris Humphries as the same last year it’s easy to be cautious. 

CHEAP SEAT: Orlando Shake Up Proving Fatal

Two games into the 2009 NBA Final and the story with the biggest impact has been the return of Jameer Nelson. The All-Star point guard returned to these playoffs after a four-month layoff, just in time for Game 1 of the Final where he played 23 minutes including the entire second quarter. Independently there were positive and productive signs for Nelson but team-wise, an ultimately inferior result as his Orlando Magic lost 100-75 to the Los Angeles Lakers. Which might beg the question; who runs this team anyway? Was Nelson’s importance so heavy for the Magic’s ultimate success that three rounds of increasingly impressive wins could not outweigh it?

 

Before Nelson’s official comebackance it seemed the players were blowing the trumpets at his return while coaches and management downplayed it all the way. Hard to believe that one man’s decision went into making the call that could potentially - and has – drastically changed the series. There are the doctors and trainers and therapists and coaches and general manager and of course, Nelson himself. It’s been reported that Nelson spoke with both replacement starter Rafer Alston and reserve point guard Anthony Johnson to gauge their comfort level regarding a possible return. Both reportedly welcomed it. Convinced? GM Otis Smith accepted it. Head coach Stan Van Gundy pushed and backed it.

 

And it has backfired.

 

The fluidity with which the Magic has played with in the biggest games of their postseason has gone missing. The Game 6 first round series clincher versus Philadelphia in Round 1 without a suspended Dwight Howard, the homecourt grabbing Game 1 win over Cleveland in Round 3 and the Round 2, Game 7 win in Boston come to mind. Suddenly open shots have turned into ugly dares and confidence has waned. Something is off in the chemistry, despite an impressive overtime battle in Game 2. If not for 18 points from forward Rashard Lewis in the second quarter the Magic would have been blown out before the half. After shooting under 30 percent from the field in their Game 1 loss the Magic shot a more respectable 41 percent but ultimately just as ineffective. Center Dwight Howard has been a mute, totaling six field goals on six for 16 shooting for a series total of 29 points.

 

Sure the bigs on the Lakers are using all kinds of length to disrupt Howard from getting the ball in the post, but the fact that they shrink on him so much means Orlando shooters have a second more to fire away. Missing their shots is a product of hesitancy and rhythm. J.J. Redick, another guard that has cut into available backcourt minutes this series, has been a victim of this. Nelson’s return can’t help but contribute to that look in some way. He handles the rock, dribbles plenty and controls tempo - but not too well at the moment. When he’s out there the Magic look out of sync. After 23 minutes of burn in Game 1 Nelson was checked to a more understandable 16 minutes and change in Game 2.  He started the first three minutes of the fourth quarter in Game 1 when Van Gundy inexplicably played him in the final frame despite a 29-point deficit. Nelson was also strangely re-inserted into that game with just over four minutes remaining with the Magic on the wrong side of an 89-65 score. Johnson never got off the bench.

 

In Game 2 Nelson was managed more conservatively and played in just four minutes of the fourth and not at all in the overtime period. The Magic, until Gasol’s seven-point OT outburst that sealed a 101-96 Lakers victory, had looked more comfortable and assertive. In fact, Nelson played just seven second half minutes. Yet Alston did not play in the fourth Q either and by the time he got back in the game midway through OT he was cold and ineffective. So much for dynamic guard play. Seems outside of Mikael Pietrus the backcourt rotation has gotten straight loopy.

 

Alston, by the way, is 3 for 17 from the field since his minutes have become a guessing game in the championship series. He has just one steal and a total of six assists over 50 minutes after averaging nearly 13 points, four assists and two steals in the first three rounds. Van Gundy’s insistence on “sticking by” Nelson may have worn off some but the damage may have already been done. This isn’t to say the Nelson is the cause for the hole the Magic finds itself in. Nor is he, or Van Gundy for that matter, responsible for missed easy looks and. Van Gundy’s tactical resume improved in Game 2 but the trick will be to repeat the performance.

 

Is that where Miami Heat president Pat Riley saw the crack in the armor? When Riley fired Van Gundy as head coach of the Heat midway through the 2006 season it was because Riley felt that Van Gundy had reached his peak with the team, and would not be capable of navigating the favored Heat to a title. Riley took over as bench boss and the Heat went on to capture the NBA title. That left Van Gundy with a bit of a perception to shake and he has in many ways with his job coaching the Magic to the second best record in the eastern conference and through a tough postseason hit list. Still, he’ll have to make some tougher decisions that stick if he is to totally shed the tag applied by Riley and the firing.

 

Chemistry is tricky and there are some players who are so good that there is no dispute as to whether or not they will play coming off an injury if they send the word. Players whose absences leave holes so large that any chance of their return is salivate over. Players so good that their returns are essential. With the way the Magic had adapted to life without their starting point guard, and despite the All-Star year he had, Nelson is not one of those players. Not in this scenario.

 

“We love having him back,” Alston told Florida Today. “He symbolizes so much of what this organization is about. But it’s difficult brining a guy in for the Finals. There’s not much wiggle room for error.”

 

The decision to alter the complexion of the roster so significantly and so late in the postseason was unnecessary. The Magic would have been better served leaving Nelson out for Game 1 to see if the gritty play and winning ways could continue without him. He’s much better shooter than Alston and point guard pressure is the fastest way to get to the Lakers, but that is all dependant on if Nelson is ready to apply that type of pressure. So far the answer is no.

 

Chemistry and confidence are fragile things, especially when talking about a collective, like a basketball team. The Magic had a bubbling confidence and swagger heading into the NBA Final but the Lakers’ aggressiveness and length, particularly in the paint, has been tough for Howard and the Magic to counter. Shooting has been streaky at best and while the Magic showed signs of life in the hustle department the defensive lapse at the end of Game 2’s overtime was discouraging for one of the NBA’s top defensive squads.

 

Who’s responsible for the above-mentioned warts? In part or whole the tag can be applied to many, but none more directly than Van Gundy. There is a more general drawback that speaks to the core of the team. That they have been unable to make a quick mental adjustment to a major line-up change at arguably the most difficult position on the floor. The mental management has not been there and at this point, the resolve should be concrete. Role definition is just as critical. The aches that ail the Magic in this series are plentiful and while the majority of it has been brought on by the Lakers themselves, making the decision to bring back Nelson one of the few obstacles the Magic could have controlled.

 

They didn’t and how do you go back? Now it’s out of hand. Now it’s looking more like subtraction by addition. 

Nelson Plays!

Point guard Jameer Nelson sent a bit of a shockwave throughout NBA circles on Thursday when it was discovered that he would be suiting up for the Orlando Magic in time for Game 1 of the league Final.

By inserting him back into the rotation Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy is risking disrupting a chemistry that has clicked with Rafer Alston as the starting point man and Anthony Johnson as the 15-minutes-or-less back-up.

Nelson was injured this past February when he collided with Dallas Mavericks center Eric Dampier in the third quarter of an eventual 105-95 home loss. Originally diagnosed as a dislocated shoulder, an MRI later revealed a torn labrum. He hasn’t played in an NBA game since and after having surgery to repair his ripped shoulder it was thought that Nelson was gone for the season. However, with the underdog Magic improbably beating both the defending champion Boston Celtics and the 66-win Cleveland Cavaliers to get to the big show, it seems they have bought enough time to allow for Nelson’s return.

That said, in his absence Alston - acquired from the Houston Rockets in a trade deadline day deal in the frenzy to replace Nelson and save their season - has played a major role in helping the Magic reach the Final. While Alston is sure to keep his starting role for now, Nelson’s effectiveness could cut into his minutes significantly if the St. Joseph’s product can return to this season’s form. Nelson was averaging 16.7 points and 5.4 assists through 42 games for Orlando before he went down, earning him his first All-Star selection and a ranking as one of the league’s best point guards. Alston has averaged 11.7 points and 5.3 assists with the Rockets and Magic this season, including a respectable 12.7 points and 4.4 assists through the first three rounds of the postseason.

The Magic played Nelson’s return close to the vest, saying in recent days that the likeliehood of his return to start the series was highly unlikely. Those close to Nelson know him as a fearless competitor who viewed the oppurtunity to suit up for the NBA Final too rare an occassion to pass up. Doctors cleared him to play two weeks ago, he had a full contact practice with his team this week and in the second quarter of Game 1, Nelson was back on the floor just four months after surgeons opened him up and forecasted a probable end to his breakthrough campaign.

Nobody saw this return coming. Then again, who thought the Magic would be in the NBA Final a month ago?